Ravens limp into Dallas with a QB nobody's heard of while Cowboys get free points

Baltimore rolls into Jerry World on Sunday, and suddenly those impressive offensive numbers from their 2-0 start look like fool's gold. The Ravens have been moving the ball—279.5 yards through the air, 155.0 on the ground—but here's the catch: Joe Fagnano will be making his first career start under center. Whatever film you watched from Baltimore's opening wins? Toss it. Different quarterback, different offense, different ballgame.

Meanwhile, Dallas trots out Sam Howell, who's got 17 games of NFL experience and the comfort of his home crowd behind him. That's not Patrick Mahomes, but it's a hell of a lot more proven than whatever Fagnano brings to the table. The betting market knows it too—this line has drifted from Cowboys +3.0 to +3.5, telling you the sharp money is hammering Dallas as a home dog.

When the fair probability sits at essentially 50-50 and you're getting three-and-a-half points with the more experienced quarterback playing at home, that's not a tough call. DarkHorse is riding Dallas +3.5 with moderate confidence (3/5). Baltimore might win outright, but asking an untested rookie to cover a field goal on the road in his debut? Good luck with that.