Patriots Lay 3 at Home: Why We're Leaning New England Over Green Bay

Packers at Patriots on November 8, and the market has moved toward the home side for a reason. New England comes in 3-0 at home, averaging 30.33 points while holding opponents to 13.0. That's the kind of home profile that makes a fan look twice at laying points.

Green Bay has problems up front. Micah Parsons is gone, and two offensive linemen, Sean Rhyan and Travis Glover, are also lost to the Packers. Green Bay's ground game is already thin at 60.6 rushing yards per game, so Jordan Love will likely carry a heavy load behind a depleted line. Pressure on the quarterback combined with a one-dimensional offense is a combination worth respecting.

Here's the pick, plainly: New England -3. Our confidence rating is 2 out of 5, so treat this as a lean, not a lock. The line has ticked from -2.5 to -3 and the moneyline from -150 to -175, but that movement likely reflects the Parsons news more than an overreaction. The edge is modest, and a push at exactly 3 is a real possibility. Size your stake accordingly and don't chase.