Cowboys Look Live in Indy, But Keep the Stake Small

Dallas heads to Indianapolis with the better form on paper, and the numbers do most of the talking. Through eight games apiece, the Cowboys are winning the scoring battle by 0.76 points per game, while the Colts sit at minus 7.62. That's a wide gap, roughly 8.4 points on neutral ground, and even after crediting Indianapolis with home field it shrinks to about 5.5 to 6 points. That's enough to clear a 4.5-point spread, at least on our math.

The offensive picture backs it up. Dallas is putting up 27.38 points a game, close to the 27.75 the Colts allow. Indianapolis averages just 20.13 points, and the Dallas defense gives up 26.62. Neither side owns a clean edge everywhere, which is exactly why this is a small play.

Watch the market. The line has moved one point toward the Colts and the moneyline has shifted noticeably. Our read is that Dallas having several key players listed as questionable is a big part of that move, and it's the main thing that could change this if the injury news gets worse.

Our pick: Dallas Cowboys -4.5, confidence 2 out of 5. In plain terms, we like Dallas to cover, but we're not sprinting toward it. Keep the stake small, check final injury reports before kickoff, and don't let a modest edge turn into a bigger bet.