Nationals' Cavalli Aims to Flip Script in St. Louis Despite Road Woes

The Nationals limp into Busch Stadium carrying an ugly 0-6 away skid, but DarkHorse is backing them at -105 anyway — and the reasoning is simple: Cade Cavalli is dealing. The right-hander brings a 3.12 ERA and a filthy 10.60 K/9 to the bump, a clear step above Kyle Leaoh's 3.33 ERA and pedestrian 8.53 strikeout rate. When you're getting plus money on the better arm, you listen.

Washington's offense gives them another edge. James Wood (0.91 OPS) and CJ Abrams (0.83 OPS) anchor a lineup with actual pop, while the Cardinals counter with Nolan Gorman (0.58 OPS) and Masyn Winn (0.63 OPS) flailing through lost seasons. St. Louis took the April meeting 6-1, but that was five months and a different universe ago.

Sure, the Nats can't buy a road win lately, and that 0-6 split screams "stay away." But sometimes the market overreacts to small samples. Cavalli's strikeout dominance should neutralize a Cardinals offense that's been punching below weight all year. At near pick-em odds, we're riding the superior starter and the better bats. Road curse be damned — this one flips.