Braves Look to Bury Philly Behind Mahle's Nasty Stuff

The Phillies limp into Truist Park on fumes, losers of four of their last five and barely scraping together 2.4 runs per game during this ugly stretch. Last night's 5-3 loss was just another chapter in a miserable September, and tonight they're staring down Tyler Mahle, who's been borderline untouchable with a 1.99 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. That's nearly a full run better than Cristopher Sánchez, who's been solid himself at 2.91 but doesn't have the same swing-and-miss arsenal.

Sure, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber both carry .86 OPS figures that look respectable on paper, but neither has been able to lift this offense out of its funk when it matters. The Braves already own the season series 3-5, and they've got the pitching edge, the home crowd, and the momentum coming off yesterday's win.

DarkHorse is backing Atlanta at -103 with modest confidence—this isn't a slam dunk given it's only rated 2 out of 5—but the logic is sound. When you've got a near-full-run ERA advantage on the mound and you're facing a lineup that can't buy a clutch hit, you take the home team at essentially a pick'em price. Philly's got nothing left in the tank.