Dodgers Look to Exploit Nola's Struggles in Philly Despite Lauer's Shakiness

This one's a race to the bottom in the pitching matchup department, but somebody's gotta win. Eric Lauer takes the ball for Los Angeles sporting a bloated 6.69 ERA and 1.49 WHIP—numbers that would get most starters demoted to mop-up duty. Yet he's still the better option on Wednesday night, because Aaron Nola has somehow been worse. The Phillies' veteran right-hander is limping through 2026 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, a far cry from his ace days.

The Dodgers hold clear advantages where it matters: team ERA sits at 3.53 compared to Philly's 4.22, and LA's lineup is hitting .260 versus the Phillies' punchless .236. Normally, Citizens Bank Park would tilt this back toward the home side, but Philadelphia has dropped four of its last six at home and is playing on back-to-back days, which never helps the bullpen depth chart.

DarkHorse likes the Dodgers at -112, a modest line that reflects the pitching chaos but respects LA's overall superiority. It's a low-confidence play—nobody's mortgaging the house on Eric Lauer—but when both starters are batting practice fodder, you ride the better offense and bullpen. Take the visitors and hope Nola's regression continues.