D.C. United vs. NYCFC: Our Model Says Shoot Over 2.5

New York City FC heads to D.C. United with a model that's leaning toward goals. We're backing over 2.5 total goals at confidence 3 out of 5, and here's the logic in plain terms.

Venue-adjusted expected goals put both sides at about 1.6. D.C. at home has posted 1.60 xGF against NYCFC's 1.57 xGA, while NYCFC on the road has managed 1.40 xGF against D.C.'s 1.78 xGA. Combine those and you land at roughly 3.1 to 3.2 total goals. A Poisson estimate on that mean puts the chance of three or more goals around 57 to 60 percent, comfortably above the 53 percent no-vig baseline.

D.C. has been leaking, conceding 1.82 goals per game and 2.1 xGA over its last eight. Both clubs are eliminated heading into Decision Day, and that tends to loosen things up, with less tactical caution and more open play.

The caveat is real. D.C.'s attack is weak, and lineups are only projected at this point, so this isn't a stake-the-house play.

Some history for the skeptics: D.C. beat NYCFC 2-0 on May 3, and our pick in that game was NYCFC, which missed. We're not chasing that result. We're reading the numbers, and they point to goals.