Miami hosts Cincy in a rematch that could blow the roof off Chase Stadium
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Posted Oct 28, 2026, 11:38 AM
If you liked goals in May, you're going to love the sequel. When these two met back in mid-spring, we got an absolute barnburner—Miami 5, Cincinnati 3—and nothing about either roster suggests Wednesday night will be any tamer.
Inter Miami is a freight train going forward, averaging 2.4 goals per game over their last ten and posting an xG-for north of 2.18 per match. They create chances in bunches at home, and their back line leaks almost as freely (1.80 xGA). Cincinnati isn't exactly stingy either, surrendering 1.81 expected goals per outing, which means Miami's attack should feast. On the flip side, Cincy has found some rhythm lately—1.8 goals per game in their last five—and they'll get looks against a Miami defense that bends more than it should.
The math here is simple: Miami projects around 4.0 goals on their own, Cincinnati adds close to another two, and you're staring at a combined expected goal output near six. DarkHorse likes over 4.0 goals at moderate confidence, and frankly, that feels conservative given the May fireworks. Both teams can score, neither can really stop anyone, and playoff implications only crank up the urgency. Buckle up.