The Paddock Report: Nuggets at Pelicans, Nov 14

Denver arrives in New Orleans on three days' rest with Jokic and Jamal Murray both healthy, while the Pelicans are running on fumes. New Orleans is on a back-to-back, its fourth game in seven nights, and it will be without Trey Murphy III, Dejounte Murray, Trendon Watford, Bryce McGowens and Yves Missi. That is a thin rotation trying to slow a team with its primary weapons intact.

The numbers back up the mismatch. New Orleans is allowing 125.6 points per game, and its recent form has been collapsing. Our model projects a margin near or past 12.5, which is why we are backing the Nuggets -12.5.

Don't mistake this for a lock. The market has Denver at 48.9 percent, so our edge is real but modest, and that is why our confidence sits at 2 out of 5. Denver's pace is slower than most, and a double-digit number always invites a backdoor cover scare. Size the bet accordingly.

The last meeting this season ended Denver 104, New Orleans 91, and our under 240.5 on that game hit. In plain language, our pick is Nuggets -12.5: Denver should win this comfortably, and we think it covers, but not by enough to bet the house.