Lakers Smell Blood as Tired Bucks Host Without Herro

Lakers at Bucks on November 11, and the setup tilts hard toward Los Angeles. Milwaukee is on the second night of a back-to-back, its fourth game in seven days, and it has won just one of its last ten. The Bucks have scored 98.2 points a game over their last five while giving up 115.2, which is not a formula for covering anything. They are also without Tyler Herro, their leading scorer at 21.4 points per game, which removes the player most capable of rescuing a sluggish offense.

The Lakers arrive rested after two days off and riding a six-game win streak. Their 120.5 offensive efficiency towers over Milwaukee's 106.5, and they have averaged 122.1 points against the Bucks compared with Milwaukee's 108.4. Home court hasn't been much of a refuge either. The Bucks score 108.3 at home and allow 123.3, a net of minus-15 per night.

Our published pick is Lakers -12.5 at confidence 3 out of 5. Plainly put, we think Los Angeles wins this game by more than twelve and a half points. The home split points to a margin of roughly 14 to 15, which sits just above the number. That cushion is thin enough that we're rating this a moderate play, not a lock. Size your bet accordingly.