Thunder Look Better on Paper, Price Keeps It a Small Play

Thunder at Trail Blazers on November 10 is a lean, not a lock, and we're treating it that way. Both teams have had three days off and three games in the past seven, so fatigue won't decide this one. The edge comes down to quality.

Oklahoma City has been the better team early. They're 8-2 and riding a four-game win streak, and they allow 104.2 points per game. Portland gives up 113.78. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, averaging 29.9 points per game, anchors everything the Thunder do. Oklahoma City is also missing real rotation pieces, which is the main reason this isn't a bigger play.

Portland has the more efficient offense, scoring 115.7 points per game against Oklahoma City's 110.9. That's the Blazers' best argument. But they're 1-2 at home and carrying a two-game losing streak, and that doesn't inspire much confidence.

Our published pick is the Thunder on the moneyline at -120, rated 2 out of 5 confidence. In plain terms, we think Oklahoma City wins outright, but the price is close to fair, so keep your stake small. This is a bet on the better team with a thin margin, not a statement that Portland can't compete.