The Paddock Report can't stop thinking about this one: Nuggets at Pacers, 2026-11-07.

Denver visits Indiana with both clubs on three days of rest, so neither side gets a schedule edge. The real story is the efficiency gap. The Nuggets are posting a 116.2 offensive rating and the Pacers a 108.7. After adjusting for pace and giving Indiana roughly three points for home court, our projection has Denver winning by around four or five.

That gap is why we're backing Pacers +7.5. Our published pick is Pacers +7.5 at confidence 2 out of 5, so treat it as a small-stake lean, not a lock. The samples are thin, seven games for Denver and nine for Indiana, and the Pacers are 0-4 at home without Tyrese Haliburton, which is a real knock on their floor.

Still, the public tends to pile onto Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in spots like this, which can keep the number friendlier than the underlying math. In plain terms, the bet wins if Indiana loses by seven or fewer or wins outright. It loses if Denver takes care of business by more than seven. Keep the stake small, and let's see whether the public premium is real.