The Paddock Report: Pistons Laying 10.5 on Tired Legs, Wizards Live

Detroit is laying double digits on the second night of a back-to-back, and that's the kind of number that makes a sharp bettor sit up. This is the Pistons' third game in seven days, while Washington arrives with two full days of rest. Our read is that the schedule alone is worth roughly 2 to 4 points of drag, and that's before we get to the rest of the board.

Detroit's home record sits at 2-2, averaging 110.0 points for and 108.75 against. Nothing about that screams fortress. The season-long margins look lopsided on paper, with the Pistons at +7.2 per game and Washington at -4.7, but that gap rests on only 8 to 10 games, which is a thin sample to hang a double-digit spread on.

Anthony Davis is listed as questionable, and that uncertainty is the other reason this stays a small play.

The last meeting went Washington's way, 114-108, on October 10, and our under 226.5 pick on that game hit.

Our published pick: Wizards +10.5, confidence 2 out of 5. Take the points and keep the stake modest.