Warriors Get Six and a Half, and We Think That's Too Many Points

Warriors at Rockets on November 11 is one of those games where the scoreboard and the number tell different stories. Houston is laying 6.5 at home, up from 5.5, and that move is what caught our eye. Both clubs are posting nearly identical scoring margins, with Houston at +9.1 per game and Golden State at +9.2. Both also arrive on two days of rest with three games in the last seven, so fatigue isn't giving either side a free pass.

Home court is typically worth about three points, which is why 6.5 looks inflated here. The Warriors' offense is the main reason to trust them. Their efficiency number is 118.8 against Houston's 117.2, and they've averaged 124.8 points over their last five while riding an eight-game win streak. Stephen Curry (30.6 PPG) and Yaxel Lendeborg (21.4 PPG) carry most of that load.

The concerns are real. Golden State's bench depth is a question mark, and they've allowed 121.5 points per game on the road, a number that should make any sharp bettor pause. That's why this is a modest edge, not a lock.

Our published pick is Warriors +6.5, rated 3 out of 5 for confidence. In plain terms, we're backing Golden State to either win outright or lose by six points or fewer.