Celtics Look Built to Run Over the Hornets

Boston visits Charlotte on two days' rest, the same as the Hornets, so fatigue isn't the story here. Scoring is. The Celtics carry an offensive efficiency of 113.7 against Charlotte's 99.7, and the recent form points the same way. Boston is running +6 a game over its last ten, scoring 114.25 and allowing 108.25. The Hornets are at roughly -11 a night, with 98.11 points scored and 109.22 allowed, and they've dropped five straight.

Small samples of 8 or 9 games call for heavy regression, and even after a 3-point home-court bump for Charlotte, our projected margin lands around 9 to 10 points. That's just enough to clear the number.

The Paddock Report's pick is Celtics -8.5, at confidence 3 out of 5. In plain terms, we think Boston wins this by more than eight and a half points. The market baseline gives Boston about a 48.9% chance to win, and we think the spread is where the value sits.

The last meeting on October 14 went Boston's way, 114-93, and our under 225.5 pick on that game hit. Nothing in the current numbers suggests Charlotte has found an answer since.