The Paddock Report: Pelicans @ Clippers, Nov. 8

The Clippers have been a mess, and the Pelicans have been the more efficient side. Our pick is Pelicans -1.5, rated 3 out of 5 for confidence. In plain terms, we think New Orleans wins by more than a field goal.

The core case is efficiency. The Pelicans are scoring 112.0 points per 100 possessions, while the Clippers are at 105.1. Scoring margin tells the same story: New Orleans is at +1.4 per game over nine games, and Los Angeles is at -6.5 over eight. Give the home team roughly three points for court advantage, and that margin points to a Pelicans win by four or five.

Los Angeles comes in at 1-7 after losing five straight, allowing 119.2 points per game during that skid. That is not a team with a defensive identity right now.

Two things keep this from being a lock. The Clippers have four days of rest to New Orleans' two, which matters if the legs are heavy. Trey Murphy III is also listed as day-to-day, so check his status before you bet.

Bottom line: we like the Pelicans to cover, but this is a 3-out-of-5 play, not a house bet. Size it accordingly and keep an eye on the injury report.