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UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Magomedov

Dec 5, 2026ANB Arena, Riyadh

Main Card

Middleweightscheduled

Israel Adesanya

24-6

vs

Shara Magomedov

17-1

DarkHorse Pick

Israel Adesanya to win · Decision

55% conf.

Adesanya's 24-6 record was built at middleweight, and the five-round format (even though this is not a title fight) suits an experienced fighter who has had to manage pace and cardio over longer distances. Magomedov's 17-1 record is strong, but the data given doesn't show the level of competition behind it, so I weigh Adesanya's experience against top opposition more heavily. With no market odds, the record and format point to a close, competitive fight that goes the distance, with Adesanya's experience edging it. Confidence is modest because the records give limited information about styles and recent form.

MarketIsrael Adesanya -157 · Shara Magomedov +125
Welterweightscheduled

Ian Machado Garry

17-2

vs

Yaroslav Amosov

30-1

DarkHorse Pick

Yaroslav Amosov to win · Decision

52% conf.

Amosov's 30-1-0 record is a stronger win-loss profile than Garry's 17-2-0, and only one loss in 31 fights suggests consistent success. I can't verify the level of his competition from the data provided, so I'm discounting that record somewhat, and Garry's two losses came in a smaller sample. The 5-round scheduled format without a title attached suggests a main event, which favors the fighter with the more proven durability and cardio over longer distances, and I lean toward this going the distance rather than ending early. With no market odds and limited information beyond records, I'm keeping confidence modest.

MarketIan Machado Garry -170 · Yaroslav Amosov +142
Heavyweightscheduled

Serghei Spivac

18-7

vs

Mario Pinto

13-0

DarkHorse Pick

Mario Pinto to win · KO/TKO · Round 2

52% conf.

Pinto's unbeaten 13-0 record is a real signal, but I can't verify the level of competition behind it. Spivac's 18-7 record suggests deep experience at heavyweight, though seven losses show he is beatable. With no market odds to anchor on, I lean toward Pinto's perfect record and the high finish rate typical of heavyweight bouts, and I keep confidence modest because of that uncertainty. I'm predicting a finish in the middle rounds rather than a decision, since a heavyweight fight is likely to end early once one fighter lands cleanly.

Welterweightscheduled

Levan Chokheli

15-3

vs

Islam Dulatov

12-1

DarkHorse Pick

Islam Dulatov to win · Decision

52% conf.

Dulatov's 12-1-0 record is tighter than Chokheli's 15-3-0, with a higher win rate and only one loss. Chokheli's three losses suggest he is more beatable, but 18 total bouts also give him more experience, and no odds or style details are available to separate them further. In a standard three-round welterweight bout between two evenly matched fighters, I lean toward Dulatov narrowly winning on the scorecards. Confidence is modest because the record gap is small and there is no market price to confirm it.

Lightweightscheduled

Mairon Santos

18-1

vs

Akbar Abdullaev

14-0

DarkHorse Pick

Akbar Abdullaev to win · Decision

52% conf.

Both fighters have strong records: Santos at 18-1-0 has more experience, while Abdullaev is unbeaten at 14-0-0. With no market odds and no verified style information, the case rests on records alone, and the edge is very thin. I lean slightly toward the unbeaten Abdullaev in a competitive three-round fight that goes the distance, but confidence is low because of the limited information and Santos's greater experience.

Light Heavyweightscheduled

Magomed Tuchalov

7-0

vs

Ion Cutelaba

20-12-1

DarkHorse Pick

Ion Cutelaba to win · KO/TKO · Round 2

55% conf.

Cutelaba's 20-12-1 record shows far more experience at the Light Heavyweight level than Tuchalov's 7-0-0, and a tighter unbeaten record built on a small sample says less than a longer résumé forged against tougher competition. The records suggest Cutelaba's 33 pro fights give him an edge in experience and pressure, while Tuchalov's perfect record is unproven at this level. No odds are available, so I lean on experience, but the 12 losses and the small sample on the other side keep my confidence moderate. A finish is more likely than a decision in a 3-round Light Heavyweight bout, and I project it midway through.

Flyweightscheduled

Bruno Silva

15-9-2

vs

Jafel Filho

17-5

DarkHorse Pick

Jafel Filho to win · Decision

55% conf.

Filho has the cleaner record (17-5-0 vs. 15-9-2), with a better win rate and fewer losses. Silva's 9 losses and 2 draws suggest he is competitive but inconsistent at this level. With no market odds and no style information beyond the records, I lean Filho on record quality alone. The three-round flyweight format and the lack of any evidence of a dominant finisher on either side point to a Decision, so I leave predicted_round null and keep confidence modest.

Light Heavyweightscheduled

Uran Satybaldiev

9-1

vs

Ivan Gnizditskiy

7-0

DarkHorse Pick

Uran Satybaldiev to win · KO/TKO · Round 2

54% conf.

Satybaldiev's 9-1-0 record is slightly deeper than Gnizditskiy's unbeaten 7-0-0, and a larger sample of fights suggests more experience in a light heavyweight division where one-punch power often decides bouts. Gnizditskiy's perfect record is a positive, but with only 7 fights, it's hard to know how it was built, so I can't treat it as a clear edge over Satybaldiev's tested resume. No odds were supplied, and with only records to go on this is a narrow lean toward Red, with a finish more likely than a decision given the weight class, so confidence stays modest.

Middleweightscheduled

Marco Tulio

14-3

vs

JunYong Park

19-7

DarkHorse Pick

JunYong Park to win · Decision

52% conf.

Park's 19-7-0 record shows more fights and more experience than Tulio's 14-3-0, but Tulio's higher win rate (about 82% vs. about 73%) keeps this close. No odds were supplied, and the records say nothing about finishing tendencies, so I lean toward a 3-round decision rather than committing to a finish round. The edge for Park rests only on experience, so confidence is low.

Bantamweightscheduled

Pavel Andrusca

9-0

vs

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

12-2

DarkHorse Pick

Mehemmedeli Osmanli to win · Decision

52% conf.

Osmanli's 12-2-0 record reflects more fights and more experience, which gives him a slight edge over Andrusca's unbeaten but shorter 9-0-0 ledger. With no market odds and no information on finishing rates or styles, I can't reliably pick a finish. A three-round bantamweight bout between two durable-looking fighters most likely goes to the scorecards. Confidence is low because the records are close and Andrusca's perfect mark could mean he is the better fighter.

Middleweightscheduled

Modestino Rodrigues

8-1

vs

Matthieu Letho Duclos

11-3

DarkHorse Pick

Matthieu Letho Duclos to win · Decision

54% conf.

Blue (Duclos, 11-3) has the deeper résumé with 14 pro fights against Red's 9, which suggests more experience over a three-round distance. Red's 8-1 record is strong, but without odds, style details, or the quality of his opposition, I can't confirm it outweighs Blue's experience edge. With no data on finishing rates, a Decision is the safest method, so I'm not committing to a round. The edge is slim, so confidence stays modest.

Bantamweightscheduled

Abdul Hussein

16-2

vs

Hecher Sosa

15-1

DarkHorse Pick

Hecher Sosa to win · Decision

52% conf.

Both fighters have strong records at bantamweight. Sosa's 15-1 and Hussein's 16-2 differ only slightly, so this is close to a coin flip. Sosa has the slightly better loss rate (one loss against two), which gives him a marginal edge. With no odds, no finish rates and no style information, I expect a competitive three-round fight that goes to the scorecards, and I keep confidence low.