Avalanche Lead the Pack as NHL Resets—But Lightning and Stars Lurk in the Ratings

Welcome back to The Paddock Report, where we sort the contenders from the pretenders before the puck even drops. Week 37 brings us a clean slate—everyone sitting at 0-0—but the underlying numbers tell us plenty about who's built to run and who's running on fumes.

Colorado sits atop the early power rankings with a net rating of +0.6, pairing a potent 3.0 offensive rating with a stingy 2.4 defensive mark. That's the blueprint: score at will, lock it down when it matters. The Avs aren't just good on paper—they're the only team cracking plus-0.5 in net rating, and that defensive discipline separates them from the pack.

Right behind them, Dallas (+0.3 net, 2.7 def) and Tampa Bay (+0.2 net, 2.8 def) are the sleeper threats. The Stars boast the league's best defensive rating, while the Lightning's balanced attack makes them dangerous in any situation. Don't sleep on Washington, Carolina, Vegas, Buffalo, Utah, or Minnesota either—all sitting at +0.1 or better in net rating with 2.9 defensive marks or lower. That's a crowded top tier.

Now for the reality check: Vancouver (-1.8 net) is a disaster waiting to happen with a 3.8 defensive rating, the worst in the league. Chicago and Nashville both clock in at -1.3 net with anemic 2.0 offensive outputs—good luck winning games when you can't score. The Blackhawks, Blues, Devils, Flames, Jets, Kraken, and Red Wings all share that same 2.0 offensive rating, and history says you can't grind your way to a Cup on defense alone.

Toronto's 3.6 defensive rating is a glaring red flag for a team with playoff aspirations, while the Rangers' -1.0 net suggests the rebuild might take longer than Manhattan wants to admit.

Bet the Avs, Stars, and Lightning early. Fade Vancouver and Chicago until they prove otherwise.