Bills Bully Vikings 23-6 and Cash Our Moneyline Pick

Buffalo didn't need a masterpiece in Minnesota. It needed to handle its business, and it did, winning 23-6 in a game that never felt like a fair fight for the home side.

The Vikings' defense was the reason we respected them, and the 13.29 points-allowed number we leaned on was legit. But Minnesota's offense entered the game already modest at 20.0 points per game, and with the absences we flagged before kickoff, asking a backup-quarterback attack to keep pace with Josh Allen's unit was a steep order. Six points is what happens when that math catches up.

Buffalo, meanwhile, produced the way its season numbers suggested it would. The 33.29 points per game it brought into the building is no fluke, and 23 points on the road is a result any Bills fan will take.

This one is a HIT. We made the Buffalo moneyline call at -176, against a market baseline of 61.4%, and we argued that a backup-quarterback offense facing Allen would push Buffalo's true win probability slightly higher. That's what happened. Minnesota's 3-0 home record couldn't survive an offense that couldn't find the end zone.

Maybe the Vikings' defense deserves more credit than the final score suggests. But the scoreboard doesn't care about moral victories, and neither do we.