Blues Blank Stars 4-0, Binnington Flips the Script on DeSmith

The Blues walked into Dallas and delivered a 4-0 shutout, turning the goaltending matchup completely on its head. Jordan Binnington—coming in with an .873 save percentage that had us questioning his ability to keep this close—posted a bagel while Casey DeSmith and the Stars' offense vanished. So much for that "clear goaltending edge."

DarkHorse's Blues +1.5 cashed comfortably, and the reasoning holds up even if the route was unexpected. We didn't need Binnington to be Dominik Hasek; we just needed Dallas to not be good enough to cover a goal-and-a-half against a road underdog. The Stars' short-handed roster—Duchene on LTIR, Bertucci's IR cloud—proved more damaging than anticipated, and St. Louis capitalized on a Dallas squad that managed zero finish. The market priced Blues +1.5 around 57-58%, essentially a coin flip, and we took the higher-probability side of a historically tough spread to cover.

Four unanswered goals is the cherry on top, but the pick was never about predicting a shutout. It was about recognizing that NHL favorites fail to cover -1.5 more than half the time, and a depleted Dallas team with a merely competent goalie wasn't the profile to buck that trend. Binnington's redemption arc is a bonus; the math did the heavy lifting.