Brewers Own September, But the Dodgers' Metrics Tell a Different Story

Milwaukee sits atop the baseball world at 85-52, and that +1.3 net rating leads the majors—but let's pump the brakes on coronation talk. The Dodgers are right there at 82-55 with a near-identical +1.1 net rating and a superior 4.9 offensive mark that trails only the Cubs' league-best 5.3. Los Angeles is built for October; Milwaukee is built for the regular season. There's a difference.

Tampa Bay at 82-54 deserves more respect than they're getting. That +0.4 net rating undersells a team that simply knows how to win, and their 4.5 offensive output matches the Yankees despite far less payroll noise. The Braves' +0.8 net and elite 3.8 team defense keeps them dangerous, but their 82-55 record might be slightly inflated—Atlanta's offense (4.7) lags behind the top tier.

The Cubs are the league's most underrated squad. Sitting sixth at 77-60, they're outscoring everyone at 5.3 runs per game, yet their 4.4 runs allowed keeps them from true elite status. Chicago is a live dog in any playoff matchup if the bats stay hot. Meanwhile, the Phillies at 77-60 are the opposite—a pedestrian +0.2 net rating screams regression, and that 4.3 team defense won't survive a seven-game series.

Houston at 69-68 is the definition of mediocre, sporting a negative net rating (-0.3) and a porous 4.9 defensive mark. They're below .500 in everything but the standings. Detroit at 63-73 is your classic better-than-their-record sleeper: +0.5 net rating and a stingy 3.9 team defense suggests they've been snakebitten all year.

Washington's 65-74 mark hides a 5.2 offensive rating—second-best in baseball—but that 5.1 defense is a sieve. The Nationals are must-fade material until they learn to get three outs. Milwaukee leads the pack, but don't be shocked when October belongs to the Dodgers.