Bulls Cover Bust as Knicks Rout Chicago 135-105

The Knicks didn't just beat the Bulls, they buried them. New York scored 135 at home in a 30-point rout, and our Bulls +11.5 pick missed badly. Chicago never got close enough to cover, let alone threaten an upset.

The case going in was that 11.5 points was too many for a 1-6 team on a five-game skid, and that the market's 48.9% fair probability made this nearer a coin flip than the line suggested. We also leaned on pace, Chicago's 108.2 possessions against New York's 99.5, and on the Knicks' home scoring, which had averaged just 104.0 PPG at home this season compared with 109.67 on the road. We figured that home struggle was the backdoor path to a cover. Instead, New York blew past 104 by more than 30 points.

Chicago's defense, the weakness we flagged, showed up in full. Giving up 135 is well above the 128.9 PPG the Bulls have been allowing, and they were never in position for the pace edge to matter. Josh Hart's ankle soreness was the other wildcard we highlighted, and the final margin gives no sign it slowed New York down.

The last meeting was only a six-point Knicks win at 133-127, and we read that as a sign this matchup could stay tight. That read was wrong. Sometimes a 1-6 team with a backdoor argument is just a 1-6 team. Chalk this one up as a miss and move on to the next number.