Cardinals Snap Five-Game Skid, Torch DarkHorse Pick 7-5

The Cardinals finally remembered how to score runs, torching Trevor Rogers for seven tallies and snapping their five-game losing streak with a 7-5 win over Baltimore. So much for that anemic 4.5 runs-per-game average we hung our hat on.

Gordon Graceffo delivered exactly what we expected—the "genuinely elite arm" held up his end of the bargain—but Rogers imploded in spectacular fashion, proving that "league-average" means absolutely nothing when a desperate lineup smells blood. St. Louis jumped on the Orioles early and never looked back, finally solving the team that had swept them in the season series and outscored them by six runs per game. Turns out a five-game losing streak is excellent motivation.

Pete Alonso and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, our vaunted offensive catalysts, managed five runs but couldn't overcome the Cardinals' sudden offensive awakening. Baltimore's recent hot streak (6.0 R/G over their last five) met a buzzsaw of pent-up frustration from a St. Louis squad that desperately needed a win.

The -135 juice on Baltimore implied 54.7% win probability based on recent form and pitching matchup. What it didn't account for? Regression to the mean happening all at once. The Cardinals were due, and they collected—at our expense.