Cavaliers take second beating from Thunder in a week as OKC wins 124-116

Cleveland's second crack at Oklahoma City went about as well as the first. The Thunder held on for a 124-116 home win, and the Cavaliers, who had lost 117-112 to this same team two days earlier, dropped their second straight in the series.

Our call was Cavaliers +2.5, and it missed. Oklahoma City won by eight, which is more than enough to bury a 2.5-point cushion. The case we made rested on three things: Cleveland's offensive efficiency edge (114.6 points per 100 possessions against Oklahoma City's 107.8), a scoring margin of 11.7 points per game, and an Oklahoma City injury report that flagged Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Cason Wallace as out long-term, with Jaylin Williams questionable. On paper, that looked like a road dog with every reason to bite back.

The scoreboard disagreed. Oklahoma City still won by eight even with the names we pointed to on the injury report, which suggests the absences were not the whole story. The efficiency gap we leaned on did not translate into a road result, and the rematch angle, a team getting another shot after a loss, turned out to be a second loss rather than a correction.

We were wrong on this one. Next time, we'll weigh the Thunder's ability to win without their injured core a little more heavily before trusting a stat line to carry a road underdog.