Celtics survive Toronto 98-93, but our -6.5 pick misses

Boston won, 98-93, but The Paddock Report's Celtics -6.5 pick is in the ditch. Boston needed to win by seven or more to cover, and it won by five. Close, but no cigar.

The logic behind the call held up on paper. Boston's season margin of about +10.7 per game against Toronto's roughly +3.3, plus home court, pointed to a fair number near Celtics -4.5 before injuries. We pushed that toward -7.5 because Scottie Barnes (23.5 PPG) was out for Toronto and Immanuel Quickley (17.4 PPG) was questionable, while Boston came in with nobody on its injury report. That was a sensible read, and a 98-93 final shows the gap was there. It just wasn't wide enough.

Here's the honest part: a five-point win is a near miss for a number that needed a comfortable margin. The market had this at 51.1% Celtics, so it was never a lock, and a game decided by five is exactly the kind of result that keeps sharp money humble. Boston did what it needed to do to win. It just didn't do enough to cover.

Should we have shaded smaller? Maybe. The edge over -6.5 was modest, and modest edges in NBA spreads die to single possessions all the time. This one did. Chalk it up to variance, own the miss, and move on to the next slate.