Crew 4, Fire 3: Seven goals killed our under and the pick missed

Columbus Crew 4, Chicago Fire FC 3. Seven goals on Decision Day, and our under 3.5 went down with them. That one's a miss, and we're not going to dress it up.

The model wanted this game quiet. Blending Chicago's home numbers (2.21 xGF, 1.31 xGA) with Columbus's road profile (1.34 xGF, 1.50 xGA) and recent form pointed to roughly 3.2 to 3.35 total goals. From there, Poisson put four-plus goals near 41 to 42 percent, which left the under around 58 percent against a no-vig market price of 53.0. That was the edge we were chasing.

Here's the honest read: a 42 percent tail is not a footnote, and it hit. The game landed at exactly double the line. The Decision Day rotation risk we flagged was the reason to keep the stake small, and keeping it small is the only part of this that didn't hurt.

What the score tells us is that Columbus's attack is real. Four goals on the road is a statement, and it's the kind of result that should make us less dismissive of that offense the next time it shows up in a total.

Take the loss and keep the process. Low-confidence plays are supposed to lose sometimes, and this one lost the way the math said it could. Next.