Cubs Cruise Past Miami, DarkHorse Backing the Wrong Fish

The Cubs made mincemeat of our Marlins +1.5 call, rolling to a comfortable 6-1 victory in Miami that was never really in doubt. So much for that "near-even matchup" we sold you on.

Shota Imanaga, who we noted had a pedestrian 4.01 ERA coming in, apparently decided to pitch like it was October, shutting down a Marlins lineup that's supposed to be scrappy at home. Meanwhile, Janson Junk lived up to his surname, getting shelled early as Chicago built a cushion that turned our plus-the-run-and-a-hook into expensive toilet paper. The Cubs offense, which we flagged as "inconsistent," picked a hell of a day to find consistency, plating six against a Miami staff that was supposed to keep this tight.

Our reasoning leaned heavily on Miami's recent 4-2 home form and favorable run differential. Turns out none of that matters when you can't hit and your starter gets lit up. The 0.10 ERA gap between starters? Might as well have been the Grand Canyon the way this one unfolded. Chicago covered the spread by four runs, making our 60-64 percent "natural coverage" projection look like wishful thinking. Sometimes the dog just doesn't hunt, and today the Marlins rolled over like a golden retriever.