Cubs Demolish Skenes and the Pirates in 11-0 Rout

Well, that was ugly. The Cubs turned PNC Park into a batting cage, hanging 11 runs on Paul Skenes and the Pirates in a complete shellacking that made our -132 Pittsburgh pick look foolish from the first inning on.

So much for Skenes' "meaningful edge." The phenom got lit up early and often, while Shota Imanaga — the guy we downgraded to a .720 OPS punching bag — carved through Pittsburgh's lineup like it owed him money. The Cubs offense exploded for double-digit runs against a pitching staff we touted as "strong at home," and the shutout was the exclamation point on a thoroughly dominant performance.

Our handicap leaned heavily on Skenes' elite profile and a Cubs offense we pegged as merely average. Instead, Chicago's bats woke up in a big way, exploiting every mistake Pittsburgh made. The 6-4 last-ten record? Irrelevant. The 58-59% true probability we calculated? Laughable in hindsight.

This is the risk when you back a pitcher in a coin-flip division game — one bad outing torches the entire thesis. Skenes is talented, no question, but baseball doesn't care about your ERA when the opposing lineup decides to tee off. The Cubs improved to 4-2 in the season series, and we're left holding an expensive lesson in humility.