Dodgers Squeeze Past Nationals 7-5, DarkHorse Pick Falls Short

The Dodgers did exactly what we feared they might—won by two—and sent our Nationals +1.5 straight to the loss column. Final: 7-5, Los Angeles. So much for that "dead even run differential" and minimal starter gap doing us any favors.

The logic was sound on paper: Alvarez versus Wrobleski looked like a coin flip, Washington was getting plus-money as a dog, and the +1.5 cushion historically covers around 60% for away underdogs. Except baseball doesn't care about your spreadsheets when the Dodgers decide to actually flex. They built enough separation to make that run line matter, and the Nats couldn't claw back that final run when it counted.

We banked on LA's recent mediocrity—4.2 runs for, 4.2 against over their last ten—to keep this tight. Instead, they found seven runs and held Washington just far enough at arm's length. The Nationals showed life with five, but it wasn't nearly enough. A one-run game wins us the ticket; a two-run game buries it. Tonight, we got buried.

Credit where it's due: the Dodgers covered because they actually won decisively. Our math said it shouldn't happen. Their bats said otherwise. On to the next card.