FC Dallas dismantle Colorado 3-1 as the pick cashes

FC Dallas 3, Colorado Rapids 1. Our FC Dallas moneyline at +100 hit, and the scoreline matched the case we made going in. Dallas were the stronger side at home, posting 1.63 xG-for and 1.29 xG-against per 90, while Colorado had been poor on the road with 1.03 xGF per 90 and a 0-3-3 run in recent away matches. Colorado got one back, which keeps their negative goalsVsxGoals figure from looking entirely hopeless, but one goal against three is a loss, and even money was a fair enough price to take on this result.

We still need to be honest about the uncertainty. We flagged low confidence for a reason. Decision Day is a strange slate, and Dallas had already clinched a top-seven place, so their motivation was always the wild card. The three-goal margin doesn't tell us whether the lineup was full strength or whether minutes were managed. It only tells us the home side did what the numbers suggested it would.

Colorado needed something from this one and didn't get it. Dallas were the better team on the night and the better team in the matchup we had identified, and that was enough. The Rapids leave with a consolation goal and a longer list of road problems, while we get to pretend the process was brilliant rather than lucky. Take the win, but keep the confidence level where it belongs.