Grizzlies Bury Raptors 118-102 and Cash Our +3.5

Memphis didn't just cover in Toronto. The Grizzlies won 118-102, and our +3.5 ticket cashed with room to spare. A 16-point margin on the road is the kind of result we were hoping for when we leaned Memphis.

The matchup was close on paper, which is why we liked the number. Both clubs arrived with three days of rest, so neither had a freshness edge. The efficiency numbers were nearly identical, with Memphis slightly ahead at 113.4 offensive efficiency to Toronto's 112.9 and a +6.1 scoring margin to the Raptors' +5.4. Memphis also held clear edges on the glass and from three. The bigger factor was the injury report. Toronto's Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley were both questionable going in, and that uncertainty put more of the risk on the Raptors. Our fair line sat around Toronto -2.5 to -3, so grabbing the Grizzlies at +3.5 gave us a little value.

Efficiency and injury uncertainty are the reasons we made the pick. The final score is the reason it paid. Memphis won by 16, so a 3.5-point cushion never had to survive a late scramble. This one goes in the win column, and the process held up.