Grizzlies roll past Pelicans, cover easily

Memphis 142, New Orleans 111. A 31-point margin is not a close game, and it was not a close bet. The Grizzlies cashed our -3.5 pick with room to spare, covering by 27.5 points and turning a short number into an easy win.

This was the outcome the case was built on. Memphis entered with the better offensive efficiency, 115.2 to New Orleans' 110.9, and a clearly stronger scoring margin, +6.0 per game against the Pelicans' -7.3. Those gaps pointed to a fair line well past 3.5 even after home court and a heavy discount for small samples, and the final score backed that read.

The other pillar was New Orleans' injury situation. The Pelicans were missing roughly 63 expected minutes, compared with about 33 for Memphis, a gap that mattered when the Grizzlies were the more complete team. New Orleans had also allowed 130 points per game over its last five, so there was little reason to expect a defensive stand.

We were not blind to the risk. The line moved from 4.5 toward the Pelicans, which is exactly the kind of market signal that should temper confidence. It did not break the core thesis. This time, the efficiency gap and the injury gap were bigger than the market's adjustment.