Heat dominate Pistons, and our pick takes the loss

Miami beat Detroit 137-117 at home, and the spread never stood a chance. Our pick was Pistons -4.5, and it missed badly. Miami won by 20, which means the number was off by nearly 25 points. That's a bad miss, and we own it.

The logic was not crazy on paper. Klay Thompson and Pelle Larsson were out, roughly 50 expected minutes gone, and Miami was on a back-to-back while Detroit had two days of rest. We weighted rest, depth and Detroit's edge in efficiency (114.4 offensive rating vs 109.2) and in scoring defense (107.8 points allowed per game vs Miami's 120.1). We concluded the margin would clear 4.5 even after crediting Miami's home court.

Instead, the Heat put up 137 against a Pistons team that had been allowing about 108 a game. The absences mattered less than we assumed, and a home team with a short turnaround can be more dangerous than the schedule suggests.

Detroit's 128-111 win in the earlier meeting should have made us more cautious. One result does not settle a series, but we leaned on the wrong signals. Consider this a lesson in trusting the efficiency numbers less and the venue more.