Heat Survive Utah 115-109, But Jazz +9.5 Cash Anyway

Miami 115, Utah 109. The Jazz +9.5 hit, and Utah's six-point loss was exactly the kind of result the number was built to allow.

Here's why we liked the dog. On a neutral floor, season scoring margins make Miami about 6.4 points better: the Heat sit at -5.3 per game, Utah at -11.7. Add Utah's home court and altitude, worth roughly three to three and a half points, and the Heat project as only about three points better in this building. Dock the Jazz another two or three for Keyonte George's absence, and the fair number lands around Heat -5.5 to -6.

That gap between our fair line and the 9.5 on the board is where the value lived. Miami was laying a lot of points against a defense giving up 121.1 per game, and the Heat could win without blowing anyone out. A six-point margin was enough for Utah to cash.

Nothing about this result says Miami is a juggernaut or that Utah is any good. It says the spread leaned too hard on the Heat's name and the season-long profile. Sometimes the model is right and the market is lazy, and tonight the market was lazy.