Indiana Survives Memphis Without Haliburton, Pacers Win 107-103

Well, that one stings. The Pacers walked into Memphis without Tyrese Haliburton and Ivica Zubac, carried a five-game losing streak through the door, and still walked out with a 107-103 win. A road team missing two of its key pieces found a way, and it did it on the Grizzlies' floor.

Our pick was Grizzlies -7, and it missed. Memphis lost outright, and a four-point defeat doesn't come close to covering a 7-point spread. The case rested on Indiana's depleted roster, the 11.4-point offensive efficiency gap favoring Memphis, Ty Jerome's 28.2 PPG, and a Grizzlies team that had won six of seven and scored 125.4 a night over its last five. On paper, that's a home side with every reason to bury a shorthanded visitor.

The part worth owning is where the read went wrong. Efficiency gaps and recent scoring trends are useful, but they assume the better team plays to its profile on a given night. Memphis didn't keep this one comfortable, and a three-point final margin means a handful of possessions decided the outcome. Laying seven at home against a team riding a losing streak was too much confidence in the number and not enough respect for how close these games run.

Credit to Indiana for grinding out a road win without its two most recognizable pieces. As for the Grizzlies, they'll face tough questions in this thread, and they should.