Inter Miami Escapes Foxborough, But Goals Stay Home in 2-1 Squeaker

Inter Miami ground out a 2-1 road win at New England, but if you backed the over 3.5 like we did, you spent 90 minutes watching a goal drought that never broke. Three total goals in a match we projected for nearly four? That's MLS for you—where xG models go to die.

Miami's attacking profile promised fireworks with their 2.34 goals-per-game average and 2.146 xG-per-game output, and they did their part well enough with two finishes. But New England's recent 1.8 goals-per-game form completely evaporated when it mattered. One goal from the Revs against a Miami side that's been far from defensively stout? Criminal underperformance from a home team that desperately needed to find the net multiple times.

The combined xG projection of 3.706 looked rock-solid on paper, especially against New England's porous backline that's been hemorrhaging 1.695 xG-against per match. Instead, we got a cagey affair where finishing touch deserted both sides when chances arose. Miami takes three points and moves on. We take the L on a total that should've sailed but instead sank like a stone in Gillette Stadium. Sometimes the numbers lie, sometimes teams just forget how to finish. Tonight was both.