Jaguars 33, Ravens 10: Our Ten-Point Lay Got Buried

Jacksonville 33, Baltimore 10. A short-week Thursday night, and the Jaguars made the Ravens' +10 look like a bad bet from the opening whistle.

Our pick was Baltimore +10, and it missed. The logic looked sound on paper. Tyler Huntley's season-ending toe injury had already pushed the market toward Joe Fagnano, who has one game played, and the total dropping to 39.5 suggested a tight, low-scoring script. We leaned on Derrick Henry and a ground game averaging 133.5 yards per contest to shorten the night and keep a backdoor cover alive. Instead, a 23-point final margin buried the number.

The total went over, though. With 43 combined points, this wasn't the grinder we expected. The scoring showed up, just not in Baltimore's favor. Jacksonville, which entered averaging 28.0 points per game, did the heavy lifting, and Baltimore's 10 points were nowhere near enough to keep it within a touchdown.

We flagged the split in Jacksonville's numbers as a caution: 32.2 points per game at home versus 17.5 on the road. Two road games is a thin sample, and we still underweighted the risk. That's on us. Ten points is a lot to lay in a Thursday game, and this one ended as a reminder of why.