Knicks Win 109-97, Our Cavs +5.5 Pick Misses

New York won 109-97 at Cleveland, and our Cavaliers +5.5 pick missed. Cleveland needed to lose by five or fewer to cover, and the Knicks won by twelve.

The case for Cleveland was built on a bad spot. It was the second night of a back-to-back, their fourth game in seven days, and Jarrett Allen and Sam Merrill were both out. We still liked the home dog because a 5.5-point road spread looked inflated for two teams with nearly identical 8-game scoring margins, and because Cleveland had the better efficiency numbers and a 4-1 home record. We figured the fatigue and injury discount was already priced in and then some.

We were wrong about how much that discount mattered. Final margins like this suggest the market had the gap closer to right than we did, or that New York's edge in this matchup was bigger than our model credited. We're not going to dress that up. Without Allen and Merrill, Cleveland didn't have enough to keep this within a touchdown's worth of points, and our fair-line math, which put the Knicks around -3 to -3.5, undersold New York.

One miss doesn't sink the model, but it's a clean reminder that a fatigue-and-injury story needs to show up on the scoreboard before we bet on it. Next spot, we'll be tougher on the price.