Lakers Hold Serve, Our -12.5 Cover Doesn't

Lakers 123, Bucks 112. Lakers win, but our -12.5 pick missed, and we're not going to dress that up.

The read was right on the bones. Milwaukee arrived on the second night of a back-to-back, four games in seven days, sitting at 1-9 over its last 10 and without Tyler Herro, its leading scorer at 21.4 a night. The Lakers came in rested, riding a six-game win streak, with the offensive efficiency edge. Every piece of the case pointed the same direction.

Where we got burned was the margin. We projected Lakers by 14 to 15, and they won by 11. That's a point and a half short of the 12.5 line, which in this business is the difference between a winning ticket and a long walk to the parking garage. Milwaukee also did more than its recent form suggested. Coming in averaging 98.2 over its last five, the Bucks still put up 112 and got over the century mark against a team that was clearly the better side.

So the winner was right, the number was too optimistic, and the book doesn't grade on "close enough." Lesson logged. Next slate, we tighten up the cover math and stop falling in love with our own blowout projections.