Late-Season Lesson: NYCFC Grinds Out 1-0 Win at D.C.

Three points for NYCFC and a very expensive lesson for anyone who bought the over. New York City FC left D.C. United with a 1-0 win, and that scoreline alone tells you this wasn't the shootout our model had penciled in.

The over 2.5 pick missed. We projected roughly 3.1 to 3.2 total goals, with D.C. at about 1.6 and NYCFC at about 1.6. The reasoning leaned on D.C. conceding 1.82 goals per game over its last eight, plus the Decision Day logic that both clubs were already out of the race and elimination tends to loosen games. This one didn't loosen anything. One goal went in, and the over never came close to landing.

The thinking deserves some honesty. D.C.'s attack was already flagged as weak, and confidence was moderate for exactly that reason. The lineups were only projected, which added more uncertainty. A 57 to 60 percent edge still means missing four times in ten, and we're not going to pretend otherwise.

For NYCFC, a road win is a road win, and the three points matter regardless of how it looked. For D.C., another low-scoring result puts the attack back under the microscope. Chalk this one up, learn from it, and move on to the next slate.