Magic 107, Kings 100: Our Kings +5.5 Pick Gets Buried

Orlando went into Sacramento without Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, and Noah Penda, with Desmond Bane listed day-to-day. None of that mattered much in the end. The Magic won 107-100, and that seven-point margin is the number that sank anyone holding Kings +5.5.

We liked Sacramento here. Our model had Orlando only about a two-point edge on neutral ground, and home court pushed that to roughly a pick'em. The Kings' 1-9 start and their minus-13.3 per-game margin made us cautious, and Domantas Sabonis being out was the other reason to temper confidence. Even so, 6.5 points looked like too many for a Magic team missing that much firepower.

It missed. Orlando's seven-point win cleared the 5.5-point cushion, so the Kings needed to keep it within five and didn't. Sacramento scored 100, which is a respectable total, but not enough to slow the Magic down when it counted.

The honest read is that we leaned too hard on season averages, and those numbers get muddy when both benches are short-handed. We also underestimated how much the Magic's remaining rotation could do. Sacramento wasn't good enough to cover, and Orlando was good enough to win comfortably. This one is on the model, and we'll adjust how we weigh injury-depleted rosters going forward.