Mariners Bats Wake Up in Seattle, Bury Boston and Our Red Sox Call

Well, that was ugly. The Mariners steamrolled into Fenway and hung eight runs on a Red Sox squad we backed at -140, turning our "explosive home offense" angle into a punchline. Final: Mariners 8, Red Sox 3, and our pick goes down swinging.

We leaned on Boston's recent Fenway firepower—6.88 runs per game over their last eight home tilts—but Seattle's bats, dormant on the road all season at 3.89 runs per game, picked the worst possible night to break out. Eight runs from a lineup that had been practically comatose away from T-Mobile Park? That's baseball, Suzyn. Meanwhile, the Red Sox offense we counted on to carry the day managed just three runs, a far cry from the run-producing machine we'd seen lately.

Bryce Miller didn't need to be spectacular; he just needed Boston to stay cold, and they obliged. Patrick Sandoval and that 4.20 ERA got shellacked exactly as his numbers suggested he might, but we gambled that Fenway's short porch and Boston's recent surge would bail him out. They didn't. Seattle's road woes were supposed to continue—instead, they flipped the script and left us holding the bag. Tough break, but the math made sense. Sometimes variance bites back.