Marlins Flip the Script, Hand Nats Another Home Loss 6-2

So much for that three-game win streak. The Nationals got throttled 6-2 at home by a Marlins squad that apparently didn't read the scouting report about Andrew Alvarez being the superior starter. Miami improved to 9-2 in the season series, and frankly, that dominance shouldn't surprise anyone at this point.

DarkHorse's Nationals -102 pick crashed and burned, banking on home cooking and Alvarez's stuff to overcome Miami's season-long stranglehold in this matchup. Turns out the Marlins' 8-2 series edge wasn't a fluke—it was a warning. Washington's offense, which had been averaging six runs during that home hot streak, managed just two runs against Janson Junk and company. Junk, the guy with the 4.21 ERA we were supposed to exploit, clearly had other plans.

The logic wasn't terrible: back the hot home team with the better starter at near pick-em odds. But baseball doesn't care about your three-game winning streaks when one team simply owns the other. Miami's 3.92 team ERA showed up when it mattered, and Washington's bats went silent at the worst possible time. Sometimes the season series tells you everything you need to know, and we should've listened. The Marlins own the Nationals in 2025—full stop.