Mavericks Roll Nets 130-93 as Dallas Cashes -9.5

Dallas didn't just beat Brooklyn, it routed them, 130-93. The Mavericks won by 37, comfortably clearing the -9.5 number by 27.5 points, so our Mavericks -9.5 pick hits in a rout.

The case going in was straightforward. Brooklyn was on the second night of a back-to-back, its fourth game in seven days, while Dallas had two days of rest and home court. We also liked the Mavericks' offense, with a better efficiency rating (111.1 to 105.0) and better shooting (46.4% to 42.8% FG). Brooklyn arrived 2-7 over its last 10 with a -5.9 point differential. Those samples were small, so we regressed the raw gap and still landed on a fair line around 10 to 11. That slim edge over -9.5 at -106 was the whole bet.

The final score suggests the edge was real in practice. A 93-point night for Brooklyn against 130 for Dallas is what it looks like when the rest, home court, and form advantages all show up at once. We can't break down which possessions or lineups drove the gap from the information we have, but the scoreboard is clear enough.

So the pick cashed, and the reasoning held up. The bigger question is whether Dallas's edge carries into the next few games or whether Brooklyn simply had a rough night. For now, we'll take the win and the result.