Mavs Cover Easily as Jazz Fall 112-100 in Dallas

Mavericks 112, Jazz 100. Dallas won by 12, comfortably clearing our -7.5 number, so the published Mavericks -7.5 is a HIT.

We liked this one for production and form, not rest. Both clubs were on two days off with three games in seven, so that was a wash. Dallas came in scoring 111.0 points per 100 possessions to Utah's 103.7, and shooting 46.9% to the Jazz's 42.9%. Utah was the bigger concern: 1-7 overall, 0-5 in its last five, averaging 103.2 while surrendering 115.6, and allowing 119.0 per game on the season. Home court added a few points on top of that gap.

The final margin bears that out. Utah's 100 points came in below its recent scoring average, and Dallas got to 112 at home, which is the kind of result that makes the pre-game case look straightforward in hindsight. The number had already moved from -6.5, so the value was thinner than we'd like, and that is why this was logged as a small play rather than a big one.

We won't pretend the sample was big. Eight games is eight games, and we regressed for it. But when the efficiency gap, the shooting gap, and the home floor all point the same direction, you take the side. Mavs cashed.