Nationals Bash Drake Early, Torch DarkHorse Pick in 10-7 Rout

So much for the 3.80 ERA gap mattering. Kohl Drake got absolutely shelled at Nationals Park, and our Diamondbacks -118 pick went down in flames faster than you can say "regression to the mean." Washington hung a 10-spot on Arizona while Drake's supposed dominance evaporated into five runs of ugly reality. Miles Mikolas, the guy we dismissed with his 5.60 ERA? He didn't even pitch—turns out we had the wrong starter entirely, which explains why our "elite pitching advantage" looked more like batting practice.

The Nationals jumped early and never looked back, building a cushion that made Arizona's seven runs feel like window dressing. Washington's bats stayed hot after yesterday's 5-3 win, proving that sometimes recent momentum trumps projected ERA splits. The Diamondbacks' 7-3 recent form meant nothing when their ace got lit up on the road.

This one stings because the logic was sound—massive pitching edge at reasonable odds—but baseball doesn't care about your spreadsheets when the wrong guy takes the mound or your starter forgets how to locate. The 54.1% implied probability we thought was too low? Market knew something we didn't. Nationals 10, Diamondbacks 7. Pick missed. Moving on.