Nets Cover at Atlanta: Hawks 124, Nets 121

Hawks 124, Nets 121, and the Nets' +6.5 cashed. Atlanta needed a late stand to stay ahead, but three points is a comfortable cushion against a number this size. The Paddock Report had Nets +6.5 as a modest-confidence play, and it hit.

The pick rested on one premise: Jalen Johnson's absence (18.3 PPG, 7.9 APG) takes away Atlanta's top playmaker and about 43.7 expected minutes, with Jock Landale and Asa Newell also out. Add home court and a season margin of 115.8 scored against 113.0 allowed, and we projected a four-to-five point Hawks win. That made 6.5 look a point or two too generous.

The final margin landed inside the number, which is the whole ballgame for a bet like this. Nobody should pretend Brooklyn was good. They came in 2-6 over their last eight and have allowed 112.9 per game on the season. But they stayed in range, and Atlanta never pulled away, even at home, where the small sample of 115.0 scored and 120.3 allowed pointed the same direction.

The edge was thin and the result was not dramatic, but the process held. Same approach on the next slate.