Nets roll Pelicans 145-111 and our Pelicans -4.5 pick gets run over

Brooklyn 145, New Orleans 111. That is not a close game, and our Pelicans -4.5 pick missed badly. The call was New Orleans by 6 to 7 at home, built on a per-possession edge of roughly 4 points per 100 in the Pelicans' favor: 111.0 offensive efficiency against Brooklyn's 104.7, with New Orleans conceding about 115.7 per 100 to Brooklyn's 113.5. On paper, that looked like a modest lean, supported by the cheaper -106 price and the moneyline drifting toward New Orleans at -172 to -180.

Paper didn't travel. The Nets won by 34, and a margin that size says the projection was wrong about the game, not just unlucky at the margin. Brooklyn scored 145, and New Orleans had no answer for it. Whatever the efficiency numbers were signaling, the actual game went the other direction in a landslide.

We flagged the risk ourselves: both samples were only 10 to 11 games deep, and a sample that small can mislead you badly. This result is a reminder of exactly that. Efficiency ratings built on limited data are a starting point, not a verdict.

The honest read is that the model liked New Orleans, the Nets didn't care, and we lose this one. We'll keep the same discipline on the next card and let the number decide, not the vibes.