Nuggets Take Down Pelicans 116-108, But Our -12.5 Pick Missed the Cover

Denver won 116-108, but it wasn't the blowout our number demanded. The Nuggets needed to win by 13 or more to cash our Nuggets -12.5 pick, and they finished by eight. That's a miss, and we're not going to dress it up.

The setup looked like a gift. New Orleans was on the second half of a back-to-back, its fourth game in seven nights, and it was missing Trey Murphy III, Dejounte Murray, Trendon Watford, Bryce McGowens and Yves Missi. Denver arrived on three days of rest with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray healthy. On paper, that's a team walking into a mismatch against a defense allowing 125.6 points per game.

Denver got the win on the road, and it did the job. But the Pelicans stayed within striking distance long enough to keep the final margin in single digits. Good teams win ugly. Covering a number this big requires burying an opponent, and Denver never got there.

What we got right was the direction. Denver was the better side in this spot and took the game. What we got wrong was the magnitude. We leaned into a large number with modest confidence, and the slower Nuggets pace was exactly why a 13-point margin was always the harder ask. Pace is the tax on blowouts, and Denver paid it.

One win for the Nuggets, one miss for our margin call. Next.