Packers 45, Patriots 27: Our Patriots -3 Pick Got Run Over at Home

Green Bay 45, New England 27. Our Patriots -3 call missed, and not by a hair. The Packers covered by a mile.

The case we made was straightforward. New England had been dominant at home, going 3-0 while averaging 30.33 points and allowing just 13.0. Green Bay was missing Micah Parsons and two offensive linemen, Sean Rhyan and Travis Glover, and its 60.6 rushing yards per game suggested an offense that would have to lean on Jordan Love's arm behind a patched-up line. We figured that was enough to keep the Patriots on top by more than a field goal.

Instead, the Packers scored 45. The home-field edge we leaned on disappeared, and a Patriots defense that had allowed 13.0 per game at home gave up more than three times that. Whatever the depleted line was supposed to do to Love, it didn't stop Green Bay from moving the ball and putting up points.

Where we went wrong is worth owning. We read the line move from -2.5 to -3 and the moneyline shift from -150 to -175 as a reaction to the Parsons news, which made the edge look modest. That reasoning was defensible on paper, but it treated the injuries as the whole story and underweighted how the matchup would actually play out. Sometimes the market is right and the handicapper is simply wrong about the football.

Credit the Packers. Forty-five points on the road against a team with a strong home profile is a statement. We'll take the L, log it, and move on to the next slate.